WTIO30 FMEE 151249



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/5/20162017

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (DINEO)



2.A POSITION 2017/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 36.3 E

(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SIX

DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 330 NW: 190

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 90

48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 80 NW: 60

64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/02/16 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 34.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, INLAND

24H: 2017/02/16 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 32.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND

36H: 2017/02/17 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 30.7 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, INLAND









2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=4.5-



ON THE VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE LAST 3 HOURS, CONVECTION PRESENTS A NICE

CURVED BANDING. DINEO HAS NOW REACHED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.

1000Z AMSR2 MW IMAGES CONFIRM THIS PATTERN AND ANALYSIS.



DINEO IS STILL HEADING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE

OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PRESENTS

A WESTWARD UPTURN LATER THAN EXPECTED BEFORE. THE LANDFALL ON THE

MOZAMBIQUE COASTS IS STILL FORECAST AT AROUND 18UTC NORTH OF

INHAMBANE, A BIT MORE SOUTH THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED.



THE GRADUALLY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT HOURS

BEFORE THE LANDFALL, GIVEN THE STILL CONDUCIVE UPPER ENVIRONMENT.

ACCORDING TO THIS SCENARIO, DINEO IS A VERY DANGEROUS TROPICAL SYSTEM

FOR THE INHAMBANE REGION. THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALLS ARE AWAITED IN

THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, ONSHORE AS WELL AS INLAND.



THE STORM SURGE IS ESTIMATED AT 1M FOR THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS. THIS

SURGE COULD REACH 2M IN THE BAY OF INHAMBANE, AND EVEN LOCALLY 3M AT

THE BOTTOM OF THE BAY. BEWARE THAT THIS VALUE DO NOT TAKE INTO

ACCOUNT THE TIDE EFFECT NOR THE SET-UP OF THE SWELL. THE TOTAL STORM

SURGE AMPLITUDE COULD THUS BE HIGHER AS THE HIGH TIDE (3M20) IS ALSO

OCCURRING AT 1744Z.=