WTIO30 FMEE 141916



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/5/20162017

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  5  (DINEO)



2.A POSITION 2017/02/14 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 38.4 E

(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT

DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 300 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 130

34 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SW: 90 NW: 80

48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/02/15 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 37.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2017/02/15 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 35.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2017/02/16 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 34.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, INLAND

48H: 2017/02/16 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 32.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND







2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=4.0-



OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AFTER A DECAY PHASE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN

DURING THE AFTERNOON, LAST AVAILABLE DATA SUGGEST SOME IMPROVEMENTS.

INDEED, NEW CONVECTIVE THRUSTS APPEARED NEAR THE CENTER ON RECENT

INFRARED IMAGES WHILE 1552Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A STRONGEST

ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL. INTENSITY IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED

AT 55KT.



DINEO CONTINUE ITS ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST ON THE

NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DURING THE NEXT

HOURS, THE STRENGTHENING OF A RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA SHOULD STEER

THE SYSTEM MORE TOWARDS THE WEST.  AT 24H RANGE, A LANDFALL IS NOW

VERY LIKELY NEAR THE NORTH OF INHAMBANE IN MOZAMBIQUE (WEDNESDAY NEAR

18 UTC). THE SPREAD AMONGST THE NWP GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY GOOD

AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.



ACCORDING TO THE LAST IMAGES, DINEO SEEMS TO HAVE OVERPASSED THE

CONSTRAINT CREATED BY THE DRY AIR INTRUSION NEAR THE CENTER. GIVEN

GRADUAL BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (LOW SHEAR AND EXCELLENT

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE NORTH AND EAST) AND THE TRAVEL OVER

VERY WARM WATER BEFORE LANDFALL, A STRONG DEEPENING IS STILL EXPECTED

BEFORE LANDFALL. DINEO MAY BE A VERY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR

THE INHAMBANE REGION, BY TOMORROW, REACHING AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO THE

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.



THE THREAT IS BUILDING FOR THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT

STORM SURGE IS LIKELY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. STORM SURGE UP TO 2

TO 3M IS POSSIBLE NEAR INHAMBANE. SOUTHWARDS, NEAR QUISSICO, STORM

SURGE UP TO 1M50 TO 2M IS POSSIBLE. BEWARE THAT THIS VALUE DO NOT

TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE EFFECT. THE REAL STORM SURGE AMPLITUDE AT

INHAMBANE WILL DEPEND UPON TIMING WITH THE HIGH TIDE IN ADDITION TO

THE FINAL DISTANCE AT LANDFALL, THE SECTOR AND THE REAL FINAL

INTENSITY AT LANDFALL.=