WTIO30 FMEE 141318



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/5/20162017

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  5  (DINEO)



2.A POSITION 2017/02/14 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 38.9 E

(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT

DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 300 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 130

34 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SW: 90 NW: 80

48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/02/15 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 37.8 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2017/02/15 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 36.5 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2017/02/16 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 35.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, INLAND

48H: 2017/02/16 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 33.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND

60H: 2017/02/17 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 31.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

72H: 2017/02/17 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 27.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=4.0-



DURING MID-DAY HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED CURCED

BAND PATTERN THAT HAS DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT DURING THE LAST FEW

HOURS. GPM OVERPASS AT 0921Z REVEAL SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE

INNER CORE FROM THE OUTER DRY ENVIRONMENT LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND

WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND IMPEDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOUTHERN

EYEWALL. THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED AT 55 KT SLIGHTLY ABOVE ALL THE

AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.



THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCALISED AT 06Z NEAR 22.1S AND 39.2E FURTHER

TO THE NORTH-EAST. THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS ON A

GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS OR SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE

NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WEDNESDAY

EVENING A STRENGTHENING STR OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA SHOULD STEER THE

SYSTEM MORE TOWARDS THE WEST.  AT 30H RANGE, A LANDFALL IS NOW VERY

LIKELY NEAR INHAMBANE IN MOZAMBIQUE (WEDNESDAY NEAR 18 UTC). THE

SPREAD AROUND THIS FORECAST TRACK HAS REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY AMONGST

THE NWP GUIDANCE TODAY.



THE CURRENT DRY AIR INTRUSION ENHANCED UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE

MAGNITUDE OF THE EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN GRADUAL BETTER

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (LOWER SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL

DIVERGENCE TO THE NORTH AND EAST) AND THE TRAVEL OVER VERY WARM WATER

BEFORE LANDFALL, AN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS

STILL EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. DINEO MIGHT BE A DANGEROUS TROPICAL

CYCLONE TOMORROW.



THE THREAT IS BUILDING FOR THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT

STORM SURGE IS LIKELY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. STORM SURGE UP TO 2

TO 3M IS POSSIBLE NEAR INHAMBANE. SOUTHWARDS, NEAR QUISSICO, STORM

SURGE UP TO 1M50 TO 2M IS POSSIBLE. BEWARE THAT THIS VALUE DO NOT

TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE EFFECT. THE REAL STORM SURGE AMPLITUDE AT

INHAMBANE WILL DEPEND UPON TIMING WITH THE HIGH TIDE IN ADDITION TO

THE FINAL DISTANCE AT LANDFALL, THE SECTOR AND THE REAL FINAL

INTENSITY AT LANDFALL.=