WTIO30 FMEE 140710



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/5/20162017

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  5  (DINEO)



2.A POSITION 2017/02/14 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 38.8 E

(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT

DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SW: 150 NW: 130

34 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SW: 70 NW: 70

48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/02/14 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 38.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2017/02/15 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 37.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2017/02/15 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 35.5 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2017/02/16 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 34.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, INLAND

60H: 2017/02/16 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 32.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND

72H: 2017/02/17 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 29.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2017/02/18 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 22.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND





2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=3.5+



THE SYSTEM IS STRENGTHENING SINCE THIS MORNING WITH AN IMPROVING

INNER CORE AS SEN ON MW PASS OF THIS MORNING AND A BUILDING EYE NOW

SEEN ON VIS IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS FAIRLY WELL SUPPORTED

BY CONGRUENT INDEPENDENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS, A SATCON AT 53

KT (1-MIN WIND) AT 0356Z AND AN ADT ALSO AT 53 KT (1-MIN WINDS) AT

0530 UTC.



THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST OVER THE

NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHARE THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY. AT 36H RANGE, A

LANDFALL IS POSSIBLE NEAR INHAMBANE IN MOZAMBIQUE. UNCERTAINTY IN THE

TRACK FORECAST EXTEND THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA BETWEEN VILANCULOS

TO THE NORTH DOW TO XAI-XAI SOUTHWARDS.



THE SOUTH-WESTERLY CONSTRAINT THAT HAS AFFECTED THE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT

DOES NOT SEEM TO CURRENTLY IMPACT THE INNER-CORE AND A SLIGHTLY ABOVE

CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO HIGH

OCEANIC CONTAIN.



THE THREAT IS BUILDING FOR THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT

STORM SURGE IS LIKELY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. STORM SURGE UP TO 2

TO 3M IS POSSIBLE NEAR INHAMBANE. SOUTHWARDS, NEAR QUISSICO, STORM

SURGE UP TO 1M50 TO 2M IS POSSIBLE. BEWARE THAT THIS VALUE DO NOT

TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE EFFECT.=