WTIO30 FMEE 140012



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/5/20162017

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  5  (DINEO)



2.A POSITION 2017/02/14 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 39.4 E

(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE

DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 2 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 90

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 110 NW: 60







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/02/14 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2017/02/15 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2017/02/15 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2017/02/16 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 35.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, INLAND

60H: 2017/02/16 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 33.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=3.5-



OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, A STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED

OVER THE CENTER, THANKS TO AN EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE

NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM SHOWS ALWAYS A STRONG

DISSYMETRY, STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE

ACCORDING TO THE LAST ASCAT DATA OF 19H34Z.



BY NOW, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARDS, BUT TOMORROW,

WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS SOUTH-EAST, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO

ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST. MOST OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHARE

THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY. AT 48H RANGE, A LANDFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR

INHAMBANE IN MOZAMBIQUE. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY, CONCERNING THE

LOCATION OF THIS POTENTIAL LANDFALL, WITH ACCURACY AROUND 400KM.



ALONG THIS TRACK, MOST ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS (ATMOSPHERIC AND

OCEANIC) ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR A DEEPENING OF DINEO. IT SHOULD IN

PARTICULAR FIND VERY FAVOURABLE SST, A STRONG AND CONTINUOUS

INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL ITS POSSIBLE LANDFALL=