WTIO30 FMEE 131811



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/5/20162017

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  5  (DINEO)



2.A POSITION 2017/02/13 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 39.6 E

(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE

DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 2 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/18 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 190 SE: 170 SW: 110 NW: 70

34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 60







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/02/14 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2017/02/14 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2017/02/15 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2017/02/15 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2017/02/16 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 34.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, INLAND

72H: 2017/02/16 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 33.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=3.0+



OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED STRONG NEAR THE

CENTER, THANKS TO AN EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTHERN AND

EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM SHOWS ALWAYS A STRONG DISSYMETRY,

MAIN PAT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

43KT 10MIN WIND HAS BEEN ALREADY MEASURED ON EUROPA ISLAND THIS

AFTERNOON, CONFIRMING A POTENTIAL ONGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION

PHASE, FAVOURED BY ITS SMALL SIZE.



BY NOW, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING VERY SLOWLY WESTAWARDS, BUT TOMMORROW,

WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS SOUTH-EAST, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO

ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST. MOST OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHARE

THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY. AT 48H RANGE, A LANDFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR

INHAMBANE IN MOZAMBIQUE. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY, CONCERNING THE

LOCATION OF THIS POTENTIAL LANDFALL, WITH ACCURACY AROUND 400KM.



ALONG THIS TRACK, MOST ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS (ATMOSPHERIC AND

OCEANIC) ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR A DEEPENING OF DINEO. A STRONG AND

CONTINUOUS INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL ITS POSSIBLE LANDFALL=