WTXS51 PGTW 091500 WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 170209133044 2017020912 04S CARLOS 011 01 125 10 SATL 020 T000 245S 0544E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD T012 259S 0562E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD T024 275S 0587E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD T036 289S 0616E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD T048 298S 0639E 045 R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD T072 303S 0639E 040 R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 085 NW QD T096 307S 0628E 030 AMP 072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 011 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 24.5S 54.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 54.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 25.9S 56.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 27.5S 58.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 28.9S 61.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 29.8S 63.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 30.3S 63.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 30.7S 62.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 54.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAINT DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z. // 0417020218 137S 561E 25 0417020300 135S 556E 25 0417020306 137S 553E 25 0417020312 141S 555E 30 0417020318 147S 563E 30 0417020400 153S 568E 30 0417020406 159S 568E 30 0417020412 167S 565E 35 0417020418 171S 565E 35 0417020500 173S 566E 35 0417020506 174S 568E 35 0417020512 175S 570E 45 0417020518 176S 574E 55 0417020518 176S 574E 55 0417020600 177S 576E 55 0417020600 177S 576E 55 0417020606 178S 575E 55 0417020606 178S 575E 55 0417020612 181S 572E 55 0417020612 181S 572E 55 0417020618 185S 570E 50 0417020618 185S 570E 50 0417020700 190S 563E 45 0417020706 195S 553E 45 0417020712 200S 544E 45 0417020718 206S 538E 45 0417020800 212S 533E 40 0417020806 220S 529E 40 0417020812 224S 527E 40 0417020818 230S 529E 45 0417020900 234S 531E 55 0417020900 234S 531E 55 0417020906 239S 535E 60 0417020906 239S 535E 60 0417020912 245S 544E 60 0417020912 245S 544E 60