WTXS31 PGTW 111500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 015

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   111200Z --- NEAR 30.5S 65.2E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 11 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   SUBTROPICAL

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 30.5S 65.2E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 31.2S 66.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   SUBTROPICAL

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

111500Z POSITION NEAR 30.7S 65.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 756 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD

AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A

SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BASED ON ITS LOCATION UNDER THE 200MB

SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND A 500MB TROUGH, SST NEAR 25C, MODERATE

BAROCLINICITY AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED

MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A

BROADENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A WEAK FRONTAL

STRUCTURE. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY STILL CONFIRMS EXTENSIVE 40 TO 45

KNOT WINDS, THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS.

TC 04S IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS IT TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE

NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON

WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR

SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z

IS 15 FEET.//