WTXS31 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 29.1S 62.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.1S 62.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 30.2S 65.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 30.9S 66.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 31.7S 66.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 63.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE BULK OF REMAINING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED THAT ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING, THE LLCC IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED WITH A DEFINITE SWATH OF 40 KNOT WINDS. BASED ON THIS DATA, THE INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION IN A 102318Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TC CARLOS IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD IN A POOR ENVIRONMENT DUE TO HIGH (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSETTING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO RAPIDLY DECREASING AS THE CYCLONE GAINS LATITUDE. THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM STRUCTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE; WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION PRIOR TO DISSIPATION AS A PASSING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH PREVENTS FORWARD MOVEMENT IN 24 DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT DRASTICALLY SPREADS AFTERWARDS AS THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE DETERIORATES. DUE TO THE LIMITED LIFESPAN OF THE CYCLONE AND THE GOOD INITIAL MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//