WTXS31 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 26.4S 56.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S 56.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 28.1S 58.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 29.3S 61.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 30.2S 64.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 30.5S 64.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 30.8S 64.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 31.1S 63.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 26.8S 57.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM SOUTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM THAT IS STILL RELATIVELY COMPACT BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF WESTERLY WIND SHEAR HAVING AN AFFECT ON OUTFLOW. A 092331Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS IN ALIGNMENT WITH CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55 TO 65 KNOTS). TC 04S IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE IN LATER TAUS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IS ENCROACHING ON THE SYSTEM DISRUPTING OUTFLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, HOWEVER A MODERATE EQUATORWARD CHANNEL STILL EXISTS. THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WIND SHEAR OVER TC 04S WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. TC 04S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN BY TAU 36 ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TO GENTLY GUIDE THE SYSTEM ON A TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 BUT DIVERGES THEREAFTER AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES COMPLEX AS THE SYSTEM IS SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKENING. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//