WTXS31 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 24.5S 54.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 54.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 25.9S 56.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 27.5S 58.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 28.9S 61.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 29.8S 63.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 30.3S 63.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 30.7S 62.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 54.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A COMPACT CENTRAL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH SLIGHT ELONGATION AS IT EMBEDDED DEEPER INTO THE STRONG WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 091137Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AND TRENDS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING THE VWS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER TAU 48, IT WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A LOW REFLECTION OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH ASSUMES STEERING. TC CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 OR SOONER. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.//