WTXS31 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 22.5S 52.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 52.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 23.7S 52.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 24.9S 53.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 26.1S 54.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 27.4S 57.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 28.6S 60.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 29.3S 60.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 29.8S 60.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 52.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE RAPIDLY PULSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081227Z SSMIS 37GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVING OVERALL OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) BASED ON THE COMPACT STRUCTURE AND RECENT ASCAT DATA. TC 04S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 04S SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 TO 60 KNOTS BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH, STRENGTHENS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SLOWING FORWARD MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST EXPECTED AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE TRACK; HOWEVER, THEY DEPICT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LATER STAGES OF THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z.//