WTXS31 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 53.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 53.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 22.2S 52.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 23.2S 52.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 24.4S 53.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 25.3S 54.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 26.6S 56.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 28.0S 56.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 29.8S 56.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 53.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 112 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI- CIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE, AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MADAGASCAR PRODUCING CONVERGENT WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE. A 072355Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC; HOWEVER, THE 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS LESS ORGANIZATION IN THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 40 KNOTS WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CLUSTER OF SATELLITE FIXES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE. TC CARLOS IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR. THIS WILL ALLOW TC 04S TO INTENSIFY UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, AIDED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BEYOND TAU 48, THE VWS WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH, BEGINNING A DECREASING TREND. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE TRACK, DECREASING ITS FORWARD SPEED AND TURNING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK SCENARIO BUT GREATLY SPREAD AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS AND TURNS TO THE WEST. DUE TO THESE FACTORS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.//