WTXS31 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 20.0S 54.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 54.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 21.2S 53.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 22.2S 52.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 23.2S 52.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 24.1S 52.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 25.5S 54.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 26.6S 55.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 27.9S 55.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 54.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 59 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE RAPIDLY PULSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL- DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071108Z NOAA-19 COMPOSITE IMAGE, HOWEVER, SHOWS TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDING AND A DEFINED CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH AN UPPER-LOW POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC PRODUCING PERSISTENT NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS CLEARLY HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LA REUNION INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 31 KNOTS. TC 04S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST, REDUCING THE VWS IMPACTS, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS AT THE STEERING STR AXIS NEAR TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, VWS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO ENTER A WEAKENING PHASE ONCE AGAIN. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SLOWING FORWARD MOVEMENT WITH A TURN TO THE WEST EXPECTED. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK; HOWEVER, THEY DEPICT VARYING DEGREES DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT THEREFORE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.//