WTIO30 FMEE 101242



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/4/20162017

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  4  (CARLOS)



2.A POSITION 2017/02/10 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.7 S / 58.8 E

(TWENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT

DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 18 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 370 SE: 240 SW: 110 NW: 150

34 KT NE: 200 SE: 110 SW: 60 NW: 110







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/02/11 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2017/02/11 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2017/02/12 00 UTC: 31.0 S / 66.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2017/02/12 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2017/02/13 00 UTC: 31.5 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2017/02/13 12 UTC: 31.9 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2017/02/14 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 64.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2017/02/15 12 UTC: 34.0 S / 64.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=3.0 CI=3.5-



SINCE THIS MORNING, CARLOS HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARD. THANKS TO

THIS MOTION, CARLOS CAN FIGHT AGAINST THE STRONG WESTWARD TO

NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (ALWAYS ESTIMATED ABOUT 30 KT BY THE

CIMSS AT 0600Z). THUS, AT 0700Z A BREATH OF CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED

NEAR THE CENTER.



CARLOS KEEPS ON GOING SOUTH-EAST STEERED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE

IN THE NORTH-EAST AND A TROUGH COMING FROM THE MID-LATITUDES. FROM

SUNDAY, CARLOS IS FORECASTED TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A LOW

TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND BLOCK

CARLOS'S MOTION TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES. SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD CURVE

SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM MONDAY



THIS NIGHT AND TOMORROW, THE GROWING VWS SHOULD GIVE POST-TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS TO THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE CIRCULATION MAY BENEFIT

FROM THE DYNAMIC FORCING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED

JETSTREAK TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST

THAT CARLOS MAY SHIFT UNDER A CUT-OFF LOW. PROTECTED FROM THE

ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR, DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AGAIN NEAR THE

CENTER WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY BUT WITH A CIRCULATION WHICH

SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL UP.=