WTIO30 FMEE 100635



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/4/20162017

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  4  (CARLOS)



2.A POSITION 2017/02/10 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.4 S / 57.4 E

(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN

DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 370 SE: 240 SW: 110 NW: 240

34 KT NE: 260 SE: 150 SW: 60 NW: 60







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/02/10 18 UTC: 28.0 S / 60.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2017/02/11 06 UTC: 29.6 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2017/02/11 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2017/02/12 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 65.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2017/02/12 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2017/02/13 06 UTC: 31.3 S / 64.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2017/02/14 06 UTC: 32.4 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

120H: 2017/02/15 06 UTC: 34.0 S / 63.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=3.0- CI=3.5-



CARLOS CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED UNDER THE NEGATIVE EFFECT OF

THE INCREASING WESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (30 KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS

AT 00Z). THIS NIGHT MICRO-WAVE IMAGERIES SHOWED THE CONVECTION MAINLY

LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.



CARLOS KEEPS ON GOING SOUTH-EAST STEERED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE

IN THE NORTH-EAST AND A TROUGH COMING FROM THE MID-LATITUDES. FROM

SATURDAY, CARLOS SHOULD BE BLOCKED BY A HIGH CELL CIRCULATING

EASTWARDS IN ITS SOUTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD

AGREEMENT. FOR THE LONG RANGE, AS CARLOS SHOULD MAKE A U-TURN, THE

UNCERTAINTY BECOMES GREATER, EVEN IF THERE IS A GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR

A SOUTHWARD TRACK.



TOMORROW, THE GROWING VWS SHOULD GIVE POST-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS

TO THE SYSTEM. SATURDAY, THE CIRCULATION MAY BENEFIT FROM THE DYNAMIC

FORCING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED JETSTREAK TO

MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT CARLOS

MAY SHIFT UNDER A CUT-OFF LOW. PROTECTED FROM THE ENVIRONMENTAL

SHEAR, DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AGAIN NEAR THE CENTER WITHIN THE

LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY WITH A CIRCULATION WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL

UP.=