WTIO30 FMEE 070044



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/4/20162017

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  4  (CARLOS)



2.A POSITION 2017/02/07 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 56.3 E

(NINETEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX    DECIMAL

THREE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 1.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 200 NW: 110

34 KT NE: 60 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 60







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/02/07 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2017/02/08 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2017/02/08 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2017/02/09 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2017/02/09 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2017/02/10 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 55.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2017/02/11 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2017/02/12 00 UTC: 27.6 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=2.5- CI=3.0-



JUST AFTER 2000Z, A BREATH OF CONVECTION PRODUCED AGAIN NEAR THE

CENTRE WITH A STRONG ELECTRIC ACTIVITY. BUT CARLOS IS CURRENTLY

EXPERIENCING A STRONG NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (ESTIMATED AT

25KT AT 1800Z BY THE CIMSS) PREVENTING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO

MAINTAIN NEAR THE CENTRE.



WITHIN A QUITE FLAT LOW, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE

SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNTIL WEDNESDAY, PASSING NORTH OF REUNION ISLAND THIS

AFTERNOON. BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND TUESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CURVED

SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD , AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.



THE DEEP LAYERED UPPER TO MID LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED JUST TO THE

SOUTH-WEST OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS PRODUCES A NORTHERN TO

NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THIS TROUGHT IS FORESCATED TO

GRADUALLY FILL UP WITH A CUT-OFF LOW THAT SHOULD ISOLATE OVER

MADAGASCAR. SO, VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD DECREASE FROM TUESDAY

EVENING WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE

SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT ALLOWING TO CARLOS AN ANOTHER PHASE OF

INTENSIFICATION. FROM THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE AHEAD A NEW

MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IF AT THE FIRST TIME, ITS

SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK SHOULD REDUCE THE NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL

WINDSHEAR, FROM SATURDAY, WINDSHEAR SHOULD BECOME TOO HIGHT AND

SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY THE SYSTEM.=