WTIO30 FMEE 051237



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/4/20162017

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  4  (CARLOS)



2.A POSITION 2017/02/05 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 57.0 E

(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN    DECIMAL

ZERO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :11 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 60 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 60

34 KT NE: 50 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 40

48 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 30





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/02/06 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2017/02/06 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2017/02/07 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 56.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2017/02/07 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2017/02/08 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2017/02/08 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2017/02/09 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2017/02/10 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=4.0+



SINCE 0600Z, VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD FILLED EYE

PATTERN MORE OR LESS DEFINED. IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT MICRO-WAVE

IMAGERY TO APPREHEND THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE OF THE CDO, THE INTENSITY

REMAINS AT THE TOP STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM



CURRENTLY CARLOS IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE

OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS.

THIS NIGHT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH BEFORE GRADUALLY

ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD TOMOROW. FROM THURSDAY, CARLOS IS FORECASTED

TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOWS OF 2

HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL MID-TROPOSPHERE CELLS LOCATED EAST AND WEST OF THE

SYSTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSENSUS OF LAST ECMWF AND GFS RUNS.



THIS NIGHT, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS GOOD WITH A WEAK

VERTICAL FLOW. BUT TOMORROW, THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD BECOME

GRADUALLY MODERATE TO STRONG AHEAD THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL

TROUGH. SO CARLOS IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE

CLOSE OVER THE MASCARENES ISLAND. FROM WEDNESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE WITH A DECREASING WINDSHEAR.

AN ANOTHER PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD PROVIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF

A NEW POLERWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FROM THURSDAY.=