WTIO30 FMEE 050050



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/4/20162017

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  4  (CARLOS)



2.A POSITION 2017/02/05 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 56.7 E

(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX    DECIMAL

SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 4 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 50

34 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 40

48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/02/05 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2017/02/06 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 57.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2017/02/06 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2017/02/07 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2017/02/07 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2017/02/08 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2017/02/09 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2017/02/10 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=3.5



OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN KEPT IMPROVING. DEEP

CONVECTION IS NOW SURROUNDING ENTIRELY THE CENTER, EVEN IF THERE IS

STILL AN ASYMMETRY WITH A STRONGER CURVED BAND IN THE NORTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE. LAST MICRO-WAVE DATA (SSMI F15 2229Z)IS IN AGREEMENT

WITH THIS ANALYSIS.



AFTER SLOWING DOWN, CARLOS TOOK A SOUTH-EASTERWARD MOVE, DUE TO THE

GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS.

FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE

SOUTH-WEST. THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON

THIS TRACK FORECAST. NWP GUIDANCE IS GLOBALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS

SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSENSUS OF LAST AVAILABLE

NUMERICAL MODELS.



CARLOS INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING BECAUSE OF ITS SMALL

SIZE, MAKING IT MORE SENSITIVE TO ITS ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM

INTENSITY MAY UNDERGO RAPID CHANGE.FROM MONDAY, A WEAKENING TREND

WITHIN A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, IS EXPECTED

AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSE OR OVER THE MASCARENES ISLANDS,

INDUCING HIGH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FINAL IMPACT OVER THOSE SMALL

ISLANDS.

INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN

AN IMPROVING UPPER ENVIRONMENT.=