WTXS31 PGTW 192000 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 113.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 113.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.7S 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 15.5S 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 15.5S 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.6S 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 15.8S 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 17.7S 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.1S 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 113.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 372 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND ON A CLUSTER OF AGENCY POSITION FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02S IS IN A NARROW ZONE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH ROBUST DUAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA, AT 30 CELSIUS, ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) AS AN APPROACHING CYCLONE (90S) FROM THE EAST WILL IMPEDE STORM MOTION DUE TO BINARY INTERACTION (BI). AFTER TAU 72, WHEN 90S MOVES OUT OF THE WAY AND INLAND INTO WESTERN AUSTRALIA, TC 02S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE ASSUMES STEERING. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF PORT HEADLAND. DUE TO THE BI AND CONSTRAINED VWS ENVIRONMENT, THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT A MERE 45 KNOTS DURING THE QS PHASE. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX STORM MOTION WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND VARIANCES IN THE TIMING. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.//