WTIO31 PGTW 120300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 13.2N 81.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 81.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 13.2N 80.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 13.3N 78.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 13.6N 76.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 81.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 688 NM SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM THAT HAS SHOWN SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS WITH A NOTABLE EYE FEATURE THAT EMERGED BRIEFLY BUT IS NO LONGER PRESENT. AN 112156 SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED VERY MUCH INTACT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING SPIRALING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T5.0 (65 TO 90 KNOTS). CURRENTLY TC VARDAH IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR CHENNAI, INDIA SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//