WTIO31 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 12.7N 84.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 84.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 12.7N 83.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 12.9N 81.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 12.9N 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 13.0N 77.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 84.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 634 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM WITH PULSATING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND SIGNS OF MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. A 102142Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE STILL PRESENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T5.0 (65 TO 90 KNOTS). CURRENTLY TC VARDAH IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD COURSE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 24 INCREASING WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, INDIA AROUND TAU 36. TC VARDAH WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.//