WTIO31 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 13.0N 85.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 85.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 13.1N 83.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 13.1N 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 13.0N 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 13.0N 78.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 84.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 604 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. A 101526Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED WESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE OBSERVED WEAKENING IN SATELLITE IMAGERY, PLACING GREATER EMPHASIS ON THE LOWER RANGE OF RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REPORTING T4.0 TO 4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS). CURRENTLY TC VARDAH IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD COURSE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 24 INCREASING WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, INDIA AROUND TAU 36. TC VARDAH WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.//