WTIO31 PGTW 100900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 12.9N 87.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 87.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 13.5N 85.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 13.9N 83.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 13.9N 82.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 13.9N 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 14.1N 76.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 87.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (VARDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 584 NM SOUTH OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS AND A 100251Z GPM 36 GHZ IMAGE REVEALING A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 TO 70 KNOTS), AND SATCON/ADT ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 60 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LIGHT-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC VARDAH IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER INDOCHINA. THE STEERING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EXTENDING OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL AND OVER INDIA WHICH WILL KEEP TC VARDAH ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 36, TC 05B WILL UNDERGO STEADY WEAKENING AS VWS BECOMES UNFAVORABLE JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER EASTERN INDIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER-LEVEL STEERING PATTERN WITH ONLY A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACKERS AFTER TAU 48. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//