WTIO31 PGTW 082100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 11.8N 91.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 91.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 12.3N 90.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 13.2N 89.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 14.0N 87.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 14.6N 85.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 15.4N 82.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.6N 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.6N 75.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 91.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081521Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES A GENERAL DRYING OF THE MOISTURE ENVELOPE, WITH A WEDGE OF DRY AIR BEGINNING TO NOSE IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON UNCHANGED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. HIGHER ESTIMATES FROM KNES ARE LIKELY SHORT-LIVED BASED ON THE FLARING CONVECTION. TC VARDAH HAS BEGUN TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST THOUGH STILL MOVING SLOWLY, UNDER A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST THAT IS PRODUCING MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING STR TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. VWS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODERATE, THOUGH AS THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE INCREASES TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST, IT WILL BECOME IN-PHASE WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR, RESULTING IN A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MODESTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS; REACHING A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT WILL CONTINUE TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A BUIDLING RIDGE LOCATED OVER INDIA WILL PRODUCE CONVERGENCE OVER THE CYCLONE, LEADING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIA. EXPECT RAPID DISSIPATION AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY STABLE AND IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH COTC THE ONLY OUTLIER TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON THE MODEL TREND, THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//