WTIO31 PGTW 080900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VARDAH) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 11.3N 92.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 92.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 11.9N 91.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 12.6N 90.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 13.3N 88.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 14.0N 87.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 14.9N 83.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 15.6N 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.8N 77.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 91.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (VARDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER, ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM. A 080301Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A NEARLY COMPLETED MICROWAVE EYE WITH SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE 36GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MORE COMPACT LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON T3.0 (45 KNOT) DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC VARDAH IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST THAT IS PRODUCING MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, THE VWS IMPACTS WILL REDUCE AS THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE BECOMES IN-PHASE WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS; REACHING A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, STEERING WILL TRANSITION TO A RIDGE LOCATED OVER INDIA WHICH WILL PRODUCE CONVERGENCE OVER THE CYCLONE AND FORCE IT ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIA. EXPECT RAPID DISSIPATION AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH COTC THE ONLY OUTLIER TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON THE MODEL TREND, THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//