WTIO31 PGTW 302100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NADA) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NADA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 10.0N 82.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 82.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 10.6N 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 10.9N 79.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 11.1N 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 82.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NADA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAGGED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 301534Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THE LLCC IS ELONGATING, CONSISTENT WITH THE POOR ORGANIZATION OBSERVED, HOWEVER 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT CENTER WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS ALSO BASED ON THE ASCAT, AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. TC 04B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER WATER AS HIGH (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETS OTHERWISE FAIR UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO TAU 24, AFTER WHICH RAPID DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 24, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//