WTNT41 KNHC 250254 RRA

TCDAT1



TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016

900 PM CST THU NOV 24 2016



RADAR DATA FROM LAS NUBES, NICARAGUA, INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF OTTO

HAS REMAINED WELL ORGANIZED SINCE LANDFALL, WITH AN EYE STILL

DISCERNIBLE.  ON THE OTHER HAND, THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED

WITH THE CYCLONE HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY SINCE LANDFALL.  THERE

HAVE BEEN NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CORE, SO THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 60 KT BASED ON THE

DECAY IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/11.  OTTO IS LOCATED OVER

NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA AND SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE PACIFIC DURING

THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A

DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND

SOUTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP OTTO MOVING IN A WESTWARD TO

WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER

THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE

END OF THE RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS

SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS, THEN IS SHIFTED A

LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK BASED ON A SHIFT IN THE CONSENSUS

MODELS.



DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS OVER THE PACIFIC, OTTO IS LIKELY TO BE

OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO

STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST DURING

THIS TIME WILL SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR.

HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING=