WTNT41 KNHC 241434 RRA

TCDAT1



HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016

1000 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016



AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE PENETRATED THE EYE OF

OTTO AROUND 1200 UTC THIS MORNING AND INDICATED THAT THE

HURRICANE WAS INTENSIFYING. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED

TO 976 MB AND THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 700 MB PEAKED AT 108 KT WHILE

THE SFMR WINDS REACHED 90 KT. SINCE THAT TIME, SATELLITE IMAGERY

SHOWED THAT THE HURRICANE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED

WITH A DISTINCT EYE IN BOTH CONVECTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY, AND

THE DATA-T NUMBERS REACHED 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON THIS BASIS,

THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 95 KT.



THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE

OTTO MAKES LANDFALL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER,

WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER THE EYE MOVES FARTHER INLAND

ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. OTTO IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE

EASTERN PACIFIC IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 H AS A TROPICAL STORM. OTTO SHOULD

CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC GIVEN THAT

STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL IN THAT REGION, AND THE CYCLONE

SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.



SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT OTTO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS

TRAPPED WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH

PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, AND SINCE THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST,

THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST

TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME, A MUCH WEAKER OTTO=