WTNT41 KNHC 240234 RRA

TCDAT1



HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016

1000 PM EST WED NOV 23 2016



A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST OCCURRED NEAR THE CENTER OF OTTO AS AN

AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THE

CYCLONE NEAR 0000 UTC.  THIS RESULTED IN THE AIRCRAFT REPORTING

CENTRAL PRESSURES NEAR 977-979 MB, 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN

EXCESS OF 100 KT, AND DROPSONDES SUPPORTING SURFACE WINDS OF AT

LEAST 80 KT. HOWEVER, THESE WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A

TRANSIENT MESOCYCLONE IN THE STRONG CONVECTION, AS DATA FROM A

SUBSEQUENT PENETRATION SHOWED A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 981 MB AND

LOWER WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 75 KT BASED ON 700-MB

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT PASS, AND THERE IS A

LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS VALUE.



CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE

HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ON THURSDAY, AND THE

INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 12

HOURS. OTTO SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE CROSSING SOUTHERN

NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO

THE PACIFIC AS A TROPICAL STORM BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS.  STRONG

EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION, AND THE

NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN

SHOWING A SLOW DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HOURS.  HOWEVER, IT

SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE PACIFIC PORTION OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST

LIES NEAR THE LOW END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.



OTTO IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 275/8.

THE HURRICANE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN NICARAGUA OR=