WTNT41 KNHC 232042 RRA

TCDAT1



TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016

400 PM EST WED NOV 23 2016



THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OVERALL CHANGE TO THE OTTO'S SATELLITE

PRESENTATION TODAY.  WHILE THE CONVECTION TEMPORARILY WEAKENED

THIS MORNING, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REBUILT NEAR THE CENTER

DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55

TO 65 KT, SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 60 KT.  AN AIR FORCE

RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE IN OTTO THIS EVENING TO

OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE.



THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT SHEAR NEAR OTTO

SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW DUE TO THE NEARBY

UPPER-LEVEL FLOW CHANGING TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. THUS OTTO

STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE LANDFALL ON

THURSDAY, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO.  OTTO

SHOULD ABRUPTLY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL, WITH A MORE GRADUAL WEAKENING

ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY

SHEAR. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SLOWER DEMISE OF OTTO AT

LONG RANGE, SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN BOOSTED SLIGHTLY FROM

THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 3 AND 4.



OTTO IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE, WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES

INDICATING A WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 6 KT.  A STRENGTHENING

MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF OTTO SHOULD FORCE THE STORM TO MOVE

A BIT FASTER TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY, WITH AN EVEN FASTER

SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.  VERY FEW CHANGES

WERE REQUIRED TO THE TRACK PREDICTION ON THIS ADVISORY SINCE THE

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.=