WTNT41 KNHC 220837 RRA

TCDAT1



TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016

400 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016



DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO BURST NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF

OTTO TONIGHT.  A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES BETWEEN 02Z AND 03Z SHOWED

PEAK WINDS OF AROUND 45 KT, WHICH SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY

AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO

REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE 06Z SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT

AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 53 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE OTTO LATER

THIS MORNING.



OTTO'S OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS RESTRICTED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE

CENTER, CONSISTENT WITH ABOUT 20 KT OF SHEAR ANALYZED OVER THE

CYCLONE BY THE SHIPS MODEL ANALYSIS AND UW-CIMSS.  THIS SHEAR IS

FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 H OR SO AND THEN ABATE SOMEWHAT

BY 36 HOURS.  GIVEN THIS, SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED

WHILE OTTO MOVES OVER WATERS OF AROUND 29C, AND THE NHC FORECAST

SHOWS OTTO BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 H.  THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST THROUGH 48 H IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND

CLOSE TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE NOAA HFIP CONSENSUS

AID HCCA.  AFTER THAT TIME, LAND INTERACTION SHOULD RESULT IN

WEAKENING AND MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT OTTO

WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW AFTER IT EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN

PACIFIC, AND THIS IS STILL REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  IT

IS WORTH NOTING, HOWEVER, THAT THE ECMWF MAINTAINS OTTO AS A

STRONGER CYCLONE OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH DAY 5.



AFTER DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT, OTTO IS ESTIMATED TO=