WTNT41 KNHC 220245 RRA

TCDAT1



TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016

1000 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016



DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF

OTTO.  A 2329 UTC WINDSAT MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE

INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME

BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A LOW-LEVEL RING FEATURE NOW EVIDENT.

DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0

AND 3.5, RESPECTIVELY, AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMSS ARE

3.2. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT, WHICH

COULD BE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE.



THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN

AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION BUT IT REMAINS RESTRICTED

TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KT.  THE

SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

WHILE OTTO TRAVERSES SSTS OF AROUND 29C.  THESE CONDITIONS FAVOR

INTENSIFICATION AND THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE

SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS, AND BRINGS OTTO TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN

36 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE NHC FORECAST DOES NOT INDICATE STRENGTHENING

BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS, OTTO COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER AFTER

48 HOURS AND BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN ABOUT

3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE ITS CROSSING OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE

NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM AS A REMNANT LOW OVER THE

EASTERN PACIFIC, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.



CENTER FIXES FROM THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT OTTO HAS

BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING.  THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED=