WTPZ41 KNHC 140208 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212016

900 PM MDT SUN NOV 13 2016



ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF

THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.  ON THIS

BASIS, THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35

KT WINDS, IN AGREEMENT WITH A SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION OF T2.5 FROM

TAFB AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA.  EVEN THOUGH TINA IS OVER 30 DEG C

WATERS, A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD

INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS IMPARTING

AROUND 30 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE.  THIS

SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHEN

A PIECE OF THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND THIS

SHOULD CAUSE TINA TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW.  THE NHC

INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL

GUIDANCE AND SHOWS DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/03.  IN THE VERY SHORT TERM,

TINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD, OR POSSIBLY

EVEN ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BURST, IN A DEEP

LAYER OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS, THE SHEAR

IS FORECAST TO BE EXTREMELY STRONG AND RESULT IN A DECOUPLING OF THE

CYCLONE.  ONCE THIS OCCURS, TINA SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND

WESTWARD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN PACIFIC

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT

OF ALL OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 12 HOURS AND THEN MERGES WITH THE=