WTIO31 PGTW 261500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (KYANT) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (KYANT) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 15.9N 86.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 86.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 15.5N 84.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 15.0N 82.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 14.3N 81.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 13.7N 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 261500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 85.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (KYANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261234Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT WARMING CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED AERIAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6-HOURS. THIS DATA SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM, AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 TO 55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW MARGINAL WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DEGRADING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, WITH FULL DISSIPATION OCCURRING BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.//