WTIO31 PGTW 260900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (KYANT) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (KYANT) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 16.4N 87.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 87.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 16.2N 85.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 15.8N 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 15.1N 82.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 14.6N 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 14.0N 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 87.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (KYANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTH OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, HOWEVER CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 260403Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS ALSO REDUCED IN SIZE. THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION IS SUPPORTED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 TO 55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND LATEST SATCON VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. TC KYANT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 24, BEFORE TRACKING MORE SOUTHWESTWARD, AS THE STR REORIENTS. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER STEADY WEAKENING WILL COMMENCE AFTER THIS TIME AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DEGRADE, AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND. FULL DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 24, WITH INCREASING SPREAD FROM TAU 36 THROUGH 72, LENDING FAIR OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//