WTIO31 PGTW 260100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (KYANT) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (KYANT) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 16.6N 88.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 88.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 16.7N 86.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 16.6N 84.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 16.3N 83.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 15.8N 81.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 15.2N 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 88.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (KYANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE THAT REMAINS SHEARED JUST WESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM CURRENT STORM MOTION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY LIMITED RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK UP TO TAU 36 BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS. TC 03B WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS SUSTAIN THE OFFSET CONVECTION. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS, DRY AIR INTRUSION, THEN LAND INTERACTION WITH INDIA WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL DECAY, THEN EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 OVER LAND. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//