WTIO31 PGTW 252100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (KYANT) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (KYANT) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 16.7N 89.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 89.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 16.9N 87.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 16.9N 85.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 16.6N 84.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 16.3N 82.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.4N 79.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 89.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (KYANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM SOUTH OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH CURVED BANDING (CB) WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK STEERING FLOW, FOREWARD SPEED OF MOTION HAS INCREASED AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER INDIA HAS ASSUMED STEERING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE PGTW FIX, AND WEAKLY DEFINED CB IN A 251606Z GPM 36 GHZ COLOR-ENHANCED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), AND ROUNDING UP BASED ON THE SATCON CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS. THE ANALYZED WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC, AND SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER 250716Z GCOM OCEAN WIND PRODUCT. AN ANIMATION OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE WEST; HOWEVER, KYANT IS NOT CURRENTLY SHOWING ANY SIGNS THAT THIS DRY AIR IS ENTRAINING INTO THE CIRCURLATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. A NEARBY BUOY REPORTS A SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 03B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE CURRENT STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK SOLUTION, ALTHOUGH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, THEY APPEAR TO BE UNDER-ANALYZING THE STRENGTH OF THE LLCC. THE TRACK IS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY BIASED TOWARD THE NAVGEM SOLUTION. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK, MODELS HAVE SHIFTED DRAMATICALLY FROM NEAR STEADY INTENSITY, TO NOW INDICATING A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24, THE DRIER AIR AND INCREASING IMPACTS OF LAND INTERACTION AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES INDIA SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//