WTIO31 PGTW 251500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 16.6N 90.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 90.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 16.7N 89.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 16.8N 87.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 16.7N 85.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 16.3N 84.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 15.4N 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 14.9N 79.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 90.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST 6-HOURS. A 251219Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS DATA SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ON A WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 36, AS THE RIDGE RE-ORIENTS. STEADY STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE AFTER TAU 48 AS TC 03B BEGINS TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR, ENCOUNTER HIGHER VALUES OF VWS, AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL STEERING PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING TO MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//