WTIO31 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 16.7N 90.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 90.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.8N 89.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 16.9N 88.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 16.9N 86.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 16.6N 84.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 15.2N 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 14.6N 79.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 90.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250330Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 250021Z WINDSAT PASS INDICATED THE LLCC IS LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTION, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ON A WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL BEFORE DIPPING SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48, AS THE RIDGE RE-ORIENTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE AFTER TAU 48 AS TC 03B BEGINS TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR, ENCOUNTER HIGHER VALUES OF VWS, AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.//