WTIO31 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 16.6N 91.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 91.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 16.8N 90.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 17.1N 88.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 17.2N 87.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 17.0N 85.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 15.8N 82.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 15.3N 81.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 91.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST OF RANGOON, BURMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FLARING AND DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS SLIGHTLY SHEARED WESTWARD OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND LINED UP WITH A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 242354Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 250000Z DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. IN THE LOW LEVELS, DRY AIR IS SPIRALING INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER WARM (30C) AND CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ON A WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL BEFORE DIPPING SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY MUCH, PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 240800).//