WTPZ45 KNHC 272032

TCDEP5



TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  19

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016

200 PM PDT THU OCT 27 2016



A COMBINATION OF COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 35 KT OF

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS REDUCED SEYMOUR TO AN ALMOST CONVECTION-LESS

SWIRL OF CLOUDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 55 KT BASED

ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND THIS COULD BE

GENEROUS.  RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE, AND SEYMOUR IS FORECAST

TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR LESS, AND DISSIPATE

COMPLETELY BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/10.  SEYMOUR IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD

DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT

OR ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED WELL

OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE NEW TRACK

FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE

PREVIOUS TRACK, AND IT REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  27/2100Z 21.2N 123.1W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  28/0600Z 22.6N 122.8W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  28/1800Z 24.0N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 36H  29/0600Z 25.0N 120.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  29/1800Z 26.4N 120.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED



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FORECASTER BEVEN=