WTPZ45 KNHC 250236 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016

900 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2016



AFTER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE PAST 30 HOURS, THE RATE OF

STRENGTHENING HAS SLOWED FOR THE TIME BEING. THE EYE OF SEYMOUR HAS

BECOME CLOUD-FILLED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE

DATA INDICATE THAT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL HAS

ERODED SOME.  THE OBSERVED ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING IS

LIKELY DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR.  HOWEVER, THERE ARE

ALREADY SOME SIGNS THAT THE HURRICANE IS RECOVERING FROM THESE

EFFECTS WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE

CIRCULAR DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

SET AT 90 KT, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 0000 UTC DUE TO

THE IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM SINCE THAT TIME.



SINCE SEYMOUR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN LOW WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS,

OVER WARM WATER, AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL

DIVERGENCE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS

ANTICIPATED. AFTER THAT TIME, HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY

SHEAR SHOULD END THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS. SEYMOUR IS FORECAST TO

RAPIDLY WEAKEN WHEN IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO HOSTILE

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BEGINNING IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY

FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND IS

IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.



SEYMOUR IS MOVING WESTWARD, OR 280 DEGREES, AT 14 KT.  THE HURRICANE

IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH

PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW=