WTPZ45 KNHC 240853 RRA

TCDEP5



TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016

300 AM MDT MON OCT 24 2016



SEYMOUR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE DATA

INDICATE THAT THE BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE

AND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED AND

BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC.  ALTHOUGH EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALED

A MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE, THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE DATA TO

DIAGNOSE THE STRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 55 AND 65 KT,

RESPECTIVELY, AND AS A RESULT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN

RAISED TO 55 KT.



SEYMOUR CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  SEYMOUR SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT

EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, THE CYCLONE

WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND SEYMOUR SHOULD

RESPOND BY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD.  AFTER 72 HOURS, AN APPROACHING

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD STEER SEYMOUR NORTHWARD, THEN NORTHEASTWARD.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS,

BUT AFTER THAT TIME THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS THIS

CYCLE.  THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER AND TAKE

SEYMOUR MUCH FARTHER NORTH AT 96 H AND 120 H THAN THE REMAINDER OF

THE GUIDANCE.  SINCE SEYMOUR IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND

BECOME AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM, THE NHC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD

THE SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.=