WTPZ45 KNHC 231432 RRA

TCDEP5



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016

1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016



ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS PRODUCING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DEEP

CONVECTION, THE CLOUD PATTERN IS HIGHLY STRETCHED FROM

NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.  MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM EARLIER

THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IS

WELL ORGANIZED DESPITE THE ELONGATED APPEARANCE IN GEOSTATIONARY

SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY.



A BAND OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LIES JUST TO

THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE, AND THEY COULD BE CONTRIBUTING TO ITS

AFOREMENTIONED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE GLOBAL MODELS

ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT

BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE EXPECTED LOW WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH WARM WATER AND HIGH

HUMIDITY VALUES SUGGEST THAT STEADY STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY

DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME, A NOTABLE INCREASE IN

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD END THE STRENGTHENING

TREND AND CAUSE WEAKENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A

SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT IT IS

LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.



THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KT.  A CONTINUED

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE

SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER

MEXICO.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A DEEP-LAYER LOW IS=