WTNT44 KNHC 302051 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016



MATTHEW HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AT A REMARKABLE RATE

TODAY.  A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK

SFMR WIND OF 116 KT AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 121 KT.  A RECENT

DROPSONDE FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT SURFACE WINDS ARE AROUND

120 KT.  BASED ON ALL OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO

120 KT, AN INCREASE OF 55 KT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.  THE LATEST

PRESSURE ESTIMATE FROM THE AIRCRAFT IS 949 MB, A DROP OF 44 MB SINCE

THIS TIME YESTERDAY.



SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR

SO, AND THE NHC FORECAST REFLECTS THAT POSSIBILITY, SHOWING 125 KT

AT THAT TIME.  GIVEN THE LACK OF SKILL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE

THUS FAR, THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, AND ITS POSSIBLE

THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  SINCE MATTHEW HAS NOW BECOME A MAJOR

HURRICANE, EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD OCCUR THAT WOULD LEAD TO

SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY NOT SHOWN HERE.  AFTER 12 HOURS, A

GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN, FOLLOWING THE TREND OF, BUT ABOVE NEARLY

ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  LAND INTERACTION WITH CUBA SHOULD

LEAD TO ADDITIONAL WEAKENING BY DAY 4, BUT MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO

REMAIN A STRONG HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, BUT THE

FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT, TO AROUND 8 KT.  THE TRACK FORECAST

REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED, WITH MATTHEW EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD BY

12 HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN THE NEXT 3 TO 4=