WTNT44 KNHC 301449 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016



MATTHEW HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING.  AN AIR FORCE

RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A PEAK SFMR WIND

OF 99 KT AND A 700-MB WIND OF 103 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA, THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE AIRCRAFT

REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 968 MB, AND ALSO

OBSERVED A 16 N MI WIDE EYE THAT IS OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST.  WATER

VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,

WITH OUTFLOW ALSO EXPANDING IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.



THIS INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED DESPITE ANALYZED SOUTHWESTERLY

SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT.  THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THIS SHEAR

CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO, AND AS A RESULT, THE SHIPS

AND LGEM MODELS SHOW MATTHEW WEAKENING DURING THIS TIME.  THIS

WEAKENING TREND IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE HWRF AND COAMPS-TC HURRICANE

MODELS.  HOWEVER, I AM RELUCTANT TO SHOW A DECREASE IN INTENSITY

GIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE CYCLONE DOES NOT APPEAR TO

CHANGE MUCH.  SOME SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE

CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE MUCH OF

THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT RANGE AND KEEPS THE INTENSITY AT 100 KT

THROUGH 72 HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN BY DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO

POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION.  LATE IN THE PERIOD THE NHC FORECAST IS

CLOSEST TO THE HWRF MODEL.



MATTHEW HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW

HOURS, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 255/10.  THE CYCLONE

SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO=