WTNT44 KNHC 300255 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016



DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MATTHEW IS

STRENGTHENING. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE FROM A DROPSONDE

IS 983 MB. THE SFMR INSTRUMENT MEASURED AN ISOLATED PEAK WIND OF

77 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER, THE

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED IN THIS MISSION SO FAR ONLY SUPPORT AN

INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT.



THE CLOUD PATTERN IS MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 24 HOURS AGO, AND

A RECENT SSMIS PASS SHOWED AN EYE FEATURE. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY THE

CREW ONBOARD THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WHICH REPORTED A CIRCULAR

22 N MI EYE OPEN TO THE SOUTH.  IMAGES FROM CURACAO RADAR ALSO SHOW

THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.  HOWEVER, SINCE

SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE, ONLY A

SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AFTER THAT TIME, THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX SOME, AND THE

OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR

INTENSIFICATION. THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE THE MODEL

CONSENSUS, AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST ISSUED BY MY

PREDECESSOR.



FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND RADAR FROM CURACAO INDICATE

THAT MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF DUE

WEST AT ABOUT 12 KT. A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO KEEP

MATTHEW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL

CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME, MATTHEW WILL BE

LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE=