WTNT44 KNHC 290251 RRA

TCDAT4



TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016



MATTHEW CROSSED A PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY, AND

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WERE EXPERIENCED IN VARIOUS ISLANDS FOR

SEVERAL HOURS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEARED TO HAVE OCCURRED IN

MARTINIQUE WHICH WAS LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE

STORM.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING MATTHEW MEASURED

A PEAK WIND AT 850-MB OF 73 KT, WHILE THE SFMR INSTRUMENT MEASURED

54 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1004 MB. THERE ARE NO SIGNS

OF AN INNER CORE YET, BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS INCREASED IN

ORGANIZATION, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 55

KT.



MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS AND RELATIVELY LOW

SHEAR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO

GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY, HOWEVER, THAT

MATTHEW ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WELL

SOUTH OF HAITI IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS IS AN AREA CLIMATOLOGICALLY

UNFAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY, AND MATTHEW COULD REDUCE ITS

RATE OF STRENGTHENING THERE.  AFTER THAT, MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A

MORE CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, AND MATTHEW COULD INTENSIFY

AT A FASTER RATE. THE NHC FORECAST IS NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM ITS

PREDECESSOR AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.



FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MATTHEW IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT.  A STRONG SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS STEERING MATTHEW WESTWARD, AND SOME

MODELS EVEN MOVE THE CYCLONE SOUTH OF DUE WEST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE=