WTNT44 KNHC 282043 RRA

TCDAT4



TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

500 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016



SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AIRCRAFT DATA FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON

INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF MATTHEW HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME

BETTER DEFINED.  THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION

JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT

BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA.  THE NEXT AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION INTO MATTHEW IS SCHEDULED FOR THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE

TRYING TO ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE, RECENT MICROWAVE AND RADAR DATA

HAVE NOT REVEALED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OR BANDING

SO FAR.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO DID NOT REPORT ANY PRESSURE FALL DURING

ITS MISSION. BASED ON THESE TRENDS, LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS

PREDICTED IN THE SHORT-RANGE, BUT WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR ARE

EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING WHILE MATTHEW MOVES OVER

THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE

UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE INTENSITY

CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS, BUT IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND THE

STATISTICAL MODELS AFTER THAT TIME.



MATTHEW IS MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 16 KT.

THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD

DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER

RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS

BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS, TO BE CLOSER TO THE NEW=